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Good Strategy Against Unknown Poker Opponents
When I started playing online poker I found it very difficult to deal with the fact that all my opponents were anonymous. I usually hadn’t played against them before, and to me, they were just nicknames with chips in front of them. And how do you play against someone you don’t know?
My opponents’ anonymity was a big problem during games, because it meant I was rarely able to make decisions based on their playing styles. This was obviously a dilemma - winning without playing the opponent is hard, sometimes impossible.
Pen and Paper as a Stat Tool
To solve this problem, I used the most basic stat tool there is: a pen and a piece of paper. When a game started, I drew a table, wrote all the players’ names around it, and started making notes on how they played.
Mostly, I focused on their pre-flop decisions, which are often the hallmark of a player’s particular way of playing. How often do they call and raise? Do they flat-call raises or always re-raise when they enter a pot after a pre-flop raiser? Do they care about what position they’re in?
This gave me answers to two questions: (1) How many hands does my opponent play?; (2) How does my opponent handle these hands - aggressively or passively?
Keep a close eye on the others at your virtual table.
To me, this was an Archimedean discovery. Behind every nickname, there was a player of flesh and blood with individual strengths and weaknesses. For the first time, I was able to exploit players’ flaws and avoid the strong players.
Knowing how you should play against certain player types is one of the most important factors when playing winning poker. We’ll look at three of the most common poker-player types and examine how you should adjust your strategy when playing against them.
Weak and Strong Players
First of all, never make moves on an opponent who doesn’t understand what you’re doing. Never bluff the unbluffable. This might sound obvious, but there are many players who constantly, and unsuccessfully, deploy overly complex strategies against substandard poker players.
If you’re up against a weak player, you should play straightforward and avoid making subtle moves. Weak players often love to call, and why not let them do that?
Bet and raise with strong hands and fold when you think you’re behind. A fancy bluff on the river when “it’s obvious that you have the flush” will often backfire. Don’t think that you have to mix up your game to become unpredictable. Weak players simply don’t care how you play - they’re too busy playing their own hands, which is one reasonthey’re weak.
Against a strong player - someone who is able to understand more complex plays - you have to mix up your game. Sometimes you can do the obvious play, but you also have to tell false stories: bluff, semibluff, bet with a strong hand to make it look like you’re bluffing, slow-play, overbet etc.
If a player has the bluff in his own repertoire, he is more likely to think that you’re bluffing. But on the other hand, he might realize that you “must have a hand” when you bet, say, 60% of the pot coast to coast.
Against a strong player you must lie, but lie so it seems believable.
Calling Stations - Your Favorite Opponents
Different players act different ways, even online.
If there’s one particular type of player you should look for when selecting tables, it’s definitely the loose-passive: someone who plays many starting hands, draws when the odds are against him and prefers calling to betting and raising.
This player, however, sometimes manages to outplay more knowledgeable poker players just because the better players don’t adjust and use the correct strategy against him. The “good players” employ fancy moves and try to outplay the “fish,” which only results in the stronger players’ demise. They make moves the calling station doesn’t understand.
You must keep in mind that a calling station (almost) always speaks the truth. If he calls you, he has something - a draw or some sort of hand. But no matter what you do, he is very likely to call you. Consequently, you need a hand that can win in a showdown. If you don’t have it, get out.
On the other hand, if the calling station checks on the flop and the turn, you must bet no matter what you hold. But you should only bluff when it’s obvious that your opponent has given up the hand.
Sometimes you’re pretty sure of what your opponent holds, say top pair, weak kicker. You know that a better player would have to fold if you made a large bet or raise. Your instincts tell you to make a move. But don’t listen to your instincts. You must not overrate your opponent.
If you make a move, the weak player is going to think for quite a while, without knowing where he stands in the hand. But when there are a couple of seconds left, he will call. He’ll then write something like “Oh, I almost folded” in the chat; and you’ll think “You should have folded, you fish!”
Then you leave the table, knowing that you got outplayed by a bad poker player. Never a good feeling.
This is why it’s of paramount importance that you take steps to get a read on your online opponents. As I discovered to my benefit, a few minutes with pen and paper taking notes on their playing styles will prove invaluable.
__________________
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(The telephone rang and Baxter took a call, getting into a discussion about some upcoming baseball games. His wife, Julie, had been sitting in on some of the interview, and she offered an entertaining recollection.)
JB: I’ll tell you a funny story about a family vacation. Donald Trump invited us to go to Atlantic City for a fight and then up to New York for his 40th birthday party. It was going to be this wonderful trip for the family. We get on the airplane in Vegas, and all five of us [Julie, Billy, and their three kids] are in first-class. I’m by the window, and Bill is on the aisle. Who do you think is sitting across from Bill in the opposite aisle seat? It’s Stu Ungar.
(Baxter hung up and smiled as he remembered the situation.)
BB: Stuey came to play gin on the plane. He said, “I’ll entertain you on the way up.”
JB: I’m stupid. They have already arranged this, and I think we’re on a family vacation. What I need to do now is move to another row, so he and Stu can play gin all the way across the country. Then, after we get to Atlantic City, Bill has to bankroll Stu.
BB: I beat him up pretty good on the plane.
CP: Did Stu Ungar go to Donald Trump’s birthday party?
BB: I got him a ticket for the fight, but he didn’t go to the party.
JB: Bill is an invited guest and he’s gambling at the Trump casino. So, they send the three kids up to New York in their own limo with a police escort. We’re right behind them in another limo. We’re on the freeway, and a third limo pulls up beside us. Someone is hanging out a window, gesturing for us to pull over. Guess who it is.
BB: I played craps and everything on this trip. They comped me, so I gave them some play - and we beat them out of $160,000. Stuey won a bunch of money, too. He found out, some way or other, when we’d be leaving. He wanted to get into our limo so that we could play gin on the way to New York. But we didn’t stop.
CP: You backed Ungar in the 1997 World Series, when he stunned everyone by winning it - and generating a $500,000 windfall for you. Do you get into backing players?
BB: I’ve never done much of that. I loaned Stu $25,000 before he died; Mike Sexton came to the house and picked up the cash. But I didn’t lend him money to play poker with. I don’t like backing people. I figure that if you’re a good player and a good gambler, you should have your own money. If you don’t have any money, there’s something wrong.
CP: You spent a lot of time gambling with Jimmy Shagra, the notorious drug trafficker who came to Las Vegas and tried to establish himself as a professional gambler. That must have been great for the real pros.
BB: Shagra was a guy with a lot of money who liked to lose. It was the greatest. He once owed me some money from a golf bet and asked me to come to his house in Vegas to collect it. Fine. I went over there, and it was his intention to hustle me. He had a pool table in his living room, and he asked me to give him a chance to get even. It was like the heavens had opened up. I just thought, this is a wonderful country. It took about two minutes to see that he didn’t know what he was doing. I looked at him and said, “Yeah, I’ll try a few rounds of this game.” I wound up winning $350,000.
DELAWARE: State trooper charged in country club poker game robbery
| DOVER, Del. — A Delaware State Police trooper who participated in a high-stakes poker game at a local golf club has been charged with robbing his fellow players, authorities said Tuesday.
HyunJin Kim, 27, of Dover, was arrested Monday and charged with 11 counts of first-degree robbery, conspiracy, possession of a firearm during a felony, wearing a disguise during the commission of a felony, and offensive touching. Kim, a 2-year veteran who has been suspended from the police force, was being held at Sussex Correctional Institute in lieu of $240,000 cash bond. “Mr. Kim is not indicative of the caliber of troopers we have serving the citizens of this state… Mr. Kim is an aberration to the men and women of this division,” said state police superintendent Col. Thomas MacLeish. Authorities were still searching for three other men believed to be involved in the Feb. 22 early morning robbery at the Wild Quail Golf and Country Club in Wyoming. According to investigators, three masked men armed with handguns and a shotgun burst into the clubhouse and confronted a dozen people, including Kim, who were playing poker. The card players were ordered to lie on the ground, where they were bound and had their faces covered. Investigators said two of the victims were assaulted and received minor injuries. The suspects stole about $10,000, as well as cell phones, credit cards and keys from the victims before fleeing in a car. Authorities said Kim left the scene before investigators arrived, but they subsequently learned from another player that Kim had been involved in the game and may have been among the victims. In the meantime, the red pillowcases used to cover the victims’ faces were traced a local Wal-Mart. Store security tapes showed two people, one of whom was later identified as Kim, buying pillowcases on the day of the card game. A search of Kim’s home and car Monday resulted in the seizure of evidence indicating his involvement in the robbery, authorities said. After initially saying that the other poker players would not be investigated for possible illegal gambling charges, authorities stressed that the investigation was continuing. “Our main focus was the robbery itself,” MacLeish said. ” … All elements will be reviewed, and if there’s any criminality on anybody’s part, appropriate charges will be placed.” Under state law, a person who gambles illegally or provides premises for gambling could be charged with a misdemeanor. Constantine Malmberg III, an attorney for and part owner of the golf club, released a statement saying the card game was not a club sponsored or approved event. “Those members and guests that participated did so on their own accord,” the statement read. “Wild Quail has responded to the matter by contracting for security cameras, taking appropriate personnel action and posting the premises as not permitting wagering.” MacLeish is a member of the golf club but said he had no knowledge of what a club banquet manager has said were regular Thursday-night card games. MacLeish emphasized he is not involved in or exercising any influence over the investigation, in which, he noted, detectives quickly tracked down leads that resulted in Kim’s arrest. Wild Quail banquet sales manager Harry Thomas told the Delaware State News last week that the weekly card game, at which he had been present at the time of the robbery, would be discontinued. |
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Advanced bankroll requirements concepts
Those are typical numbers, but you may be curious as to how they are derived, or you may have atypical winrate, standard deviation or risk aversion and want something more specific for your needs. While you may not be interested in how the formula is derived (though I’m pretty sure at least two people on this board will be interested if they don’t know it already), you may want to play with it a bit to see how things change if you increase or decrease a bit your winrate, etc. variance.
The actual formula is :
B = -ln(r)*sigma²/(2w)
r = exp(-2wB/sigma²)
where
B = bankroll
r = risk of ruin
sigma = standard deviation (in some units)
w = winrate (in the same units as standard deviation)
This assumes you will play at a given limit forever. Although as soon as you start playing enough at a limit and don’t withdraw you’ll be fine : indeed, winning and thus adding money to your bankroll reduces your risk of ruin as a consequence. Doubling your roll makes your risk of ruin gets squared so it goes down very quickly. Also, if you are correctly disciplined and willing to go down in limits the risk of ruin or the bankroll requirements are significantly reduced.
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Standard deviation is, in simple terms, the amount off average something is on average. Let’s take an example :
Desired risk of ruin : 0.5%
Winrate : 5BB/100
Standard deviation : 45BB/100
Bankroll = -ln(0.005)*45*45/(2*5) = 1073 BB = 2145 big blinds = 21.5 buyins
There you are, the 20 buyins guideline can be found as a direct application of the formula for some typical values.
Desired risk of ruin : 0.5%
Winrate : 10BB/100
Standard deviation : 45BB/100
Bankroll = -ln(0.005)*60*60/(2*10) = 536 BB = 1072 big blinds = 10.7 buyins
Here you can see the importance of winrate on the final result. The more you’re crushing the game, the less buyins you need.
Desired risk of ruin : 0.5%
Winrate : 5BB/100
Standard deviation : 60BB/100
Bankroll = -ln(0.005)*60*60/(2*5) = 1907 BB = 3815 big blinds = 38.1 buyins
Standard deviation varies a bit from person to person, depending on the playing style and the number of players at the table. Here are typical SD values in BB/100 (courtesy Casper…) :
So you can see the fullring players usually have a lower standard deviation than the shorthanded players, hence have lower swings and lower bankroll requirements. As you can see above when we changed the 45 s.d. to a 60 s.d., which could be considered typical numbers, we went from 20 buyins required to 38 buyins required. That’s why it’s generally recommended to have a bigger bankroll for 6-max games than for fullring.
It will also provide you with the results for slightly different winrates and risk of ruins, which is cool.
PS : Multi-tabling doesn’t change anything to bankroll considerations mathematically. However, if you’re prone to tilt, I can see having 12 tables open at the same time being potentially more harmful than 4, for example if you decide to go allin on all your tables at the same time 
But, essentially, it doesn’t change anything to bankroll calculations.
Part II : Winrate considerations
As you should also notice, your winrate is key in determining your bankroll needs. For example, in a game you’re crushing you can get away with a real low 10 buyins bankroll. However, how can you be sure you’re crushing the game and not just being lucky ? And by the time you’re sure you’re crushing the game, you will have much more than 10 buyins anyway. We can see a posteriori why so many of us could build up easily from the $50 on party playing NL5 though 
Determining your true winrate isn’t obvious and always require a lot of hands in a game like poker where the variance is much higher than the winrate. It’s always a hot topic and how many hands you really need is always somewhat mysterious. I remember hearing 10k hands when I first started as a good starting point for the long run. It’s laughable now and anything under 100k hands will get people smiling at you. It’s more subtle than that in reality and also directly related to your standard deviation.
So, as I was saying before, standard deviation is, in simple terms, the amount off average something is on average. It helps answer the question “how often will I be that far from the average ?” For example, if you flip a coin a hundred times, it is expected to land on heads 50 times. But how likely is it that it will land on heads more than 55 times, or 60 times ? How about less than 20 times ? Using basic statistics, we can answer all these questions.
Standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the sample size. That has a couple implications. First of all, when you have your SD in PT, it is per 100 hands. To convert it to different sample sizes you have to multiply by the square root of sample size / 100. So if you have an SD of 50 BB for 100 hands, on 100k hands you would have an SD of 50*sqrt(100000/100) = 1581 BB for 100k. It also has implications on the speed of convergence of your winrate to your true winrate. When you increase the number of hands played, your earnings increase linearly with respect to the number of hands, but at the same time, your standard deviation also increases, but in square root of the number of hands only. The earnings/deviation ratio, which is central in determining your confidence in your winrate, evolves only in square root of the number of hands, which is pretty slowly for those of you who don’t see how the sqrt(x) function looks.
Let’s get to that. The probability an event occurs decreases as it gets further from the mean, that’s pretty intuitive. More quantitatively, an event wil occur within one SD of the mean 68% of the time, within two SDs 95% of the time (more exactly within 1.96 SDs), and within three SDs 99.7% of the time. To come back to our first example, when you flip a coin a hundred times, the standard deviation is 5. So we’ll get 45-55 tails 68% of the time, 40-60 tails 95% of the time. Now, let’s apply this to poker. Assume your winrate is 5BB/100 and your SD 60BB for 100. Where does your true winrate lie with 95% certainty after 10k hands ? What about after 100k hands ?
Estimating your winrate confidence inteval
After 10k hands, your SD is 60*sqrt(10000/100) = 600 BB. Your earnings are 5BB/100*10000 = 500BB. Now remember that the 95% confidence interval is within two SDs. Thus for 10k hands your true win rate is 500BB +/- 2*600BB, or per 100 hands 5BB +/- 12BB. Your true winrate is with 95% confidence between -7BB/100 and 17BB/100. See what I was talking about with the 10k sample size being laughable above What about 100k hands now ? Earnings are 5*1000BB +/- 2*60*sqrt(1000), which gives 5000BB +/- 3794BB, for a winrate per 100 hands of 5BB +/- 3.8BB, or between 1.2BB/100 and 8.8BB/100. Congratulations, you’re a proven winner at 95% confidence. Notice how wide and inaccurate the confidence interval is, even after one hundred thousand hands ! So, the general formula would be :
Confidence interval = c*SD/sqrt(sample size/100)
where
c is a factor to decide the confidence you want. Typical values to use :
- 1 for 68% confidence (to NOT use would be more appropriate)
- 1.96 for 95% confidence
- 2.17 for 97% confidence
- 2.58 for 99% confidence
- 3 for 99.7% confidence
You can find c for your desired confidence level in a table of the standard normal distribution or in Excel with =NORMSINV((x%+1)/2).
You might be interested in the probability you’re a winning player with a certain confidence. If so, use this formula in Excel :
=1-NORMDIST(0,winrate,SD/sqrt(hands/100),true)
where winrate is in BB/100, and SD is in BB for 100 hands. NORMDIST is the Excel function for the cumulative normal distribution from minus infinity to 0, with mean = winrate, and sigma = SD/sqrt(hands/100). For an observed winrate of 5BB/100 and an SD of 60 for 100 hands, you get approximately 80% after 100k hands and 99.6% after 100k hands (notice this formula is just for being a proven winner, not a winner at that specific winrate !).
How many hands would I need for a given accuracy
Another question you may ask, is how many hands must be played in order to accurately know one’s winrate within +/- 0.5BB/100 for example. While it’s somewhat more academic and less useful, it’s pretty interesting to try it once for educative purposes.
It depends on what level of confidence you want of course. Let’s see the requirements for 95% confidence and 99% confidence for typical values, even though, as you’ll quickly see, you probably won’t play enough hands at that level to ever reach this accuracy in your life. The actual winrate doesn’t enter into the calculation actually. It would if we had specified the accuracy as some percentage of the winrate of course.
The standard error (SE) of the win rate is always SD/sqrt(N/100), where SD is the standard deviation for 100 hands, and N is the number of hands. For 95% confidence, we need 0.5 bb to be about 1.96 standard errors. For 99% confidence, we need 0.5 bb to be about 2.58 standard errors. Call this number s, for the number of standard errors. Then we have :
0.5 = s*SD/sqrt(N/100)
N = 100*(s*SD/0.5)^2
We can use this equation to get the following results:
95% confidence:
For SD = 60 bb/100, N =~ 5.5 million hands.
For SD = 40 bb/100, N =~ 2.5 million hands.
99% confidence:
For SD = 60 bb/100, N =~ 9.6 million hands.
For SD = 40 bb/100, N =~ 4.3 million hands.
So as you can see, it takes a ridiculous amount of time to achieve 0.5 bb/100 accuracy. The bottom line is short term results are mostly meaningless. Even long term, comparing your 9BB/100 to someone else’s 7BB/100 and bragging about how much you pwnzor him isn’t very meaningful. Don’t bother trying to pinpoint your winrate with 0.1BB/100 or even 0.5BB/100 accuracy, it’s completely futile, even more so considering you will (hopefully) improve during the course of your play. Never forget that even if you are playing much better than your opponents, it will still be very likely for you to drop 1, 2, 5, 10, 15 buyins without even tilting. And you’ll probably have an even worse downsing at some point assuming you play enough (one extremely good player on this site had a 40 buyins downsing once for example). Just the inherent luck factor in the game of poker.
Part III : Some variance
That brings up an interesting question. Given a winrate and standard deviation, how do you calculate the probability of winning/losing x BB in n hands ?
To do that, first compute your average win on n hands (winrate x n/100 if winrate is in BB/100). Compute your SD for n hands (SD * sqrt(n/100) if SD is in BB/100). Your target x will be some SDs away from the mean (below or above), find how many. Then just look the probability of that happening in a standard normal distribution table, or use excel and input =NORMSDIST(number of SDs). This will give you the probability of winning less than x BB in n hands. If you’re interested in winning more than x, do 1 minus that number and you will have the probability of winning x BB or more.
Let’s take an example. Winrate = 5BB/100, SD = 60BB/100. What’s the probability you will lose 5 buyins or more in 10k hands. Your average win would be 500BB for 10k hands, and your SD 60*sqrt(100) = 600BB. Losing 500BB would be 1000BB below the mean, that is -1.67 SD. The probability you lose that amount or more is thus =NORMSDIST(-1.67) = 4.8%. That means that being what is considered a very good winner in that game, there is still roughly 5% chance you’ll be down 5 buyins after 10k hands, while you should be up 5 buyins. If you’re only a 2.5BB/100 winner, the probability shoots up to more than 10%. Yes, this game is tough.
Conclusion : combining winrate confidence and bankroll calculations
If you have made it to this point, you have either skipped to the conclusion, or you’re pretty well versed in everything variance related. Notice how the winrate calculations are very useful for the bankroll requirements. Calculate the confidence interval around your winrate, at 98% confidence for example. There is 1% chance of a winrate below the minimum winrate you found to give you your observed winrate (1% and not 2% because there is also a 1% chance it was higher than the maximum winrate of the 98% confidence range). From there, you could say you’re 99% confident your winrate is above that minium, and use that minimum winrate to calculate your bankroll requirements, for maximum safety.
Example :
Desired risk of ruin : 0.5%
Winrate in PT : 7BB/100
Standard deviation : 60BB/100
Sample size : 100,000 hands
Confidence interval at 98% = 2.33*SD/sqrt(sample size/100) = 4.4 BB/100
-> Winrate between 2.6 and 11.4 BB/100
-> Winrate higher than 2.6 BB/100 at 99% confidence
Bankroll at 0.5% RoR = -ln(0.005)*60*60/(2*2.6) = 3668 BB = 7336 big blinds = 73 buyins
Bankroll at 1% RoR = -ln(0.005)*60*60/(2*2.6) = 3188 BB = 6376 big blinds = 63 buyins
Same with a standard deviation of 45BB/100 instead :
Winrate higher than 3.7 BB/100 at 99% confidence
Bankroll (RoR 0.5%) = 29 buyins
Bankroll (RoR 1%) = 25 buyins
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Winnings Sit N Gos or SNG Poker Tournaments
Sit and Go tourneys best at Absolute Poker because they got 6 max SNGs. *sit and gos* Anwyay SNG’s are fast-paced and fun to play in. It’s like playing in a microcosm of a big multi-table tournament. The structure of SnG’s is usually that of a one-table freezeout and the top 2 or 3 places pay out. Since you’re going to be starting out with at least 9 or 10 players at your table, it makes sense to play pretty tight in the early stages of these tournaments. The logic is simple: many of your opponents will be wild and tend to gamble early on. For whatever reason, these folks just don’t feel comfortable unless they get a quick double-up under their belt. This puts you in a great situation if you’re holding a monster hand preflop like pocket Aces or Kings, but you generally want to stay out of the action early on. You get rewarded for just surviving, so let others get knocked out before you take your shots. If there’s enough gamble in your opponents early on, you might not even need to win many pots to get into the money.
Early Rounds
Look at the risk/reward ratio for another reason to play more conservative early on. The blinds start off pretty low in these tourneys, so what do you have to gain by bluffing, or even playing a mediocre hand at all? You’re not going to be picking up much if you win the pot, and you might get raised to the point where you’re paying much more than you’d like to. Especially in early position, I wouldn’t play anything worse than A-Q suited or a pair of Queens. Wait until your table is a few opponents short and the blinds are higher, as you’ll have more to gain by your aggressive play.
Especially at tighter sites, an SnG is a great place for the continuation bet. A continuation bet is making a bet after the flop after you’ve raised the hand preflop. You’ve taken control of the hand, preferably with position, by raising before the flop, so your opponents will usually check to you. At this point, you make a bet anywhere between half the size of the pot and the full size of the pot. Since you raised preflop, your opponents will tend to put you on a big hand, possibly a big pocket pair. When the board comes out with 3 rags, or your opponents only got a piece of the flop, and they’re facing another bet from the preflop raiser, they’ll usually throw their hand away.
For example, let’s you raised 4x the big blind from late position with A-K and 3 callers stay in. When the flop comes out 9-2-5, regardless of the suits, you’re going to bet at least half the pot when your opponents check to you. If one of your opponent calls your bet on the flop, he obviously has something to stay in the hand, even if it’s only a draw. If he checks to you again on the turn and you don’t hit your Ace or King, you’ll have to check behind him. Also, be aware that many opponents like to slowplay or check-raise the preflop raiser. They know that you’re likely to bet or raise again on the flop, so they’ll often wait until you bet and raise you. If you get raised and you didn’t hit the flop in some way, you should just release your hand.
Middle Rounds
As the blinds begin to increase further into the tournament, you’ll need to open up your play a bit. Firstly, you’ll want to start looking for tighter players to steal the blinds from. As the tournament progresses and the blinds become a larger percentage of everyone’s stack, play at the table will generally tighten up. You’ll often find yourself in late position without any players yet to enter the pot. If you have a decent holding (two face cards, an Ace, or any pocket pair), you should consider raising to gain control of the hand and possibly win the blinds preflop. This play works best against tight or timid opponents, who will usually fold unless they have a premium hand. If this type of player calls your raise or reraises you, you should proceed with caution. They’re inherently tight players, so a call or raise means that they’re holding a strong hand. Facing a reraise, I will often throw my hand away. You can still attempt to steal the blinds from aggressive opponents, but tend to have a stronger hand to raise with than you would against tighter opponents in case you get called or reraised. Unless you’re holding an overpair to the board, I don’t recommend a continuation bet against an aggressive. This type of online player will often call you down with middle or bottom pair, and if you can’t beat that you shouldn’t bet.
You’ll also want to loosen up your starting hand requirements. Usually by the time the blinds reach levels of 100-200 or 150-300 or greater, at least a couple or more of your opponents have been knocked out. Since there are less players at the table, the sizeable blinds will hit you more often. While I recommend a tight-aggressive style of play early in the tournament, you simply won’t be able to wait for premium cards with the blinds so large. Even if you’ve managed to increase your chip stack significantly by this point in the tournament, the blinds will still affect you. As I mentioned earlier, your opponents will generally play tighter at this point in the tournament, so playing an aggressive game can be advantageous. Look for opportunities to raise hands like suited connectors or any two face cards from late position. Even if you get called by one or both of the blinds, you’ll be able to analyze the texture of the flop and act last on every future betting round. Position is extremely important in hold ‘em, and anytime you have position in a hand, you have a major advantage.
Heads-Up
So, you’ve followed my advice, played a great tournament, and you’ve managed to make it down to the final two. Good job! What’s next? When you get down to head-up play, you’re either going to be acting or reacting on every hand. There won’t be a pot that you won’t be involved in, and you’ll have to be prepared for fast action. You opened up your play as the blinds increased, and you’ll need to open up your play even further when you’re playing heads-up. Most often, the action will take place before the flop. The small blind gets to make the first move preflop, so if you have any semblance of a hand you should raise and try to take the big blind. If your opponent is timid, you should definitely run over him as often as possible.
The odds are that your opponent doesn’t have a hand, so it will be difficult for him to call without the cards to warrant it, especially being out of position on future betting rounds. Of course, your opponent probably deduces the same logic about your hand, so you can’t allow him to run over you, either. Don’t be afraid to go all-in with any pocket pair, any Ace or King, or even suited connectors. You’ll be putting a lot of pressure on your opponent, and you’ll often pick up the pot with this move. If you do get called, hopefully you have your opponent beaten. If you were aggressive and made a move but got beaten, don’t beat yourself up. Finishing in second is very respectable, you’ll win some money, and it means that you played a great tournament.
Sit ‘n Gos allow for fast action and good practice for multi-tournament play without the investment of hours of your time. Remember to start off playing a tight game, as many opponents will play recklessly early on, and you aren’t highly rewarded for taking chances on borderline calls early on. Try to play a solid game early on, and as the blinds increase you should begin to open up your game by occasionally stealing blinds and raising with more hands from late position. If you make it to the final table, be the aggressor as much as possible and don’t hesitate to go all-in often with pairs and at least one face card. Sit ‘n Gos are becoming more and more popular for their fast tournament style, and many online players profit from playing these games exclusively. By following our advice and, most importantly, putting it in practice, you can reach the point where you are making money in 7 or 8 out of 10 tournaments – a very healthy alternative to consistent cash game wins.
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Many players routinely bet the flop with a good hand, but will virtually always check the turn. They do this because they don’t want to be raised by someone on the turn or river (when the bets are doubled). This habit is prevalent in the lower limit games. However, if you play mid-limit games, this flaw is not nearly as common. In any case, it is worth considering, as some mid limit and high limit tables attract a few players with this flaw.
Make Observations
Let’s say you carefully observe your opponent and you notice this behaviour pattern: This opponent has A-10 and the flop is A-8-4. This opponent bets the flop and two people call. On the turn, a 3 falls and this opponent then checks. When someone bets, he simply calls the turn. On the river, he also checks and calls. This opponent appears to be a “weak” or “weak tight” player on the basis of this single observation.
Now lock on to this player and watch how he plays the same situation in future hands. If this behavioural pattern continues, it’s time to implement a strategy to exploit his weakness.
Keep in mind the motivation for this behaviour. If he is weak and tight’ish, he is not betting the flop and checking the turn simply because he’s given up on a bluff or thinks he has been outdrawn on the turn. He is simply afraid of being raised on the turn or river when the bets are doubled. As such, he simply checks with the intention of calling all the way to the showdown. It’s usually that simple.
How to play against this sort of opponent
There are two strong changes you can implement into your game plan based on the observations of an opponent with this flaw.
First, you can call with more marginal cards preflop and on the flop when you are in a late position and he is sitting within two or three seats of your right. For example, if you have 6-7 off-suit in a late position, you should probably not play this hand unless a big multi-way pot is brewing. However, if it is a medium size pot (approximately three or opponents) and this opponent calls preflop, you may want to call. If you hit any sort of draw on the flop, there is a good chance that this opponent will give you a free card on the turn. This is why you can play more drawing hands against this sort of opponent, even if your draw is not stunning.
For example, let’s say that there are five callers (including yourself and this opponent) before the flop and you have 6-7 off-suit. The flop is K-8-4 and it’s checked to this opponent. He bets. As a result, you must call one small bet to win the six small bets in the pot. Additionally, one or two other opponents may call behind you on the flop. But let’s say you are only getting pot odds of 6-1 on the flop. Should you call?
The chances of hitting a 5 on the turn or river are approximately 5-1. However, if you fail to hit the five on the turn, you will probably have to fold, even if you called the flop. Your odds of hitting a 5 on the river are 10-1 against and you probably won’t be getting those sorts of pot odds on the turn. So in reality, you are only calling on the flop to see if you can spike a 5 on the turn, since you won’t continue to the river if you miss. Therefore, the only odds of significance are the odds against hitting a 5 on the turn only. Since you are approximately 10-1 against hitting a 5 on the turn card, you are not really getting the correct price to call on the flop.
However, if you know that your opponent will bet the flop, then check the turn and give you a free card, you should call the flop by all means. The odds of hitting a 5 on either the turn or river are approximately 5-1 and since you will be getting a look at both cards for the price of a call on the flop, you can take those 5-1 odds because you are getting 6-1 from the pot, not to mention the large implied odds on offer and the possibility that some other early position opponents will call the flop behind you thereby increasing your pot odds.
This approach comes with three caveats based on the same reasoning. First, if this particular opponent bets again on the turn, you must fold. If it seems that this opponent is unreliable, or becomes unreliable, at automatically “betting the flop then checking the turn” you must abandon this strategy.
Second, if another player at the table picks up on this opponent’s behavioural pattern as you have and starts messing up your plan by putting in fancy check-raises on the flop and betting our of position on the turn, stay away. Wait for the right time. This fancy player may soften up this opponent further, resulting in more free cards in subsequent pots.
Third, if this opponent is in an early position, this strategy won’t be as effective. If he bets the flop and checks the turn, middle and late position players between you and him are probably going to bet the turn more often which disrupts your free card strategy.
Aside from the free card aspect of this sort of opponent, you should also never try to bluff or semi-bluff him on the turn. In my opinion and experience, I have won much more money from players giving me free cards (when they shouldn’t) than I have won by semi-bluffing. This comes back to the motivation for his behaviour: he has a good hand but checks the turn to avoid being raised when the bets are doubled. Therefore, he intends to call to the showdown and probably has a good enough hand to do so. Don’t bluff a caller.
When to use this approach
Finally, you should use this bet the flop and check the turn strategy yourself when you are heads-up against a maniac with a reasonably good hand. Let’s you have A-Q. The maniac raises, you call and it’s heads up. The flop is A-8-6. If you bet here (which I think you should), he will probably raise in which case, you should simply check and call the turn and river. This way, you avoid losing big bets when you are genuinely behind and avoid being moved off the winning hand.
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There are many ways to play poker, but perhaps the best way to explain how to win, is to raise, and to raise often. Raising the pot can produce two outcomes that can be extremely advantageous.
The most important aspect of raising is to force other players out of the pot. Against more than two opponents, even a great hand like pocket rockets will have a hard time standing its own ground after the flop. Your goal should be to force the other players to fold, and try to squeeze as much money as you can from the players that are left. The optimal scenario is in either a single caller or folded hands throughout the table.
Assuming that the raiser started with a pretty good hand, a good raise is the only way in which you will be able to build the pot. There’s nothing more beautiful than to hold a great hand that needs help like As-Ks when an ace hits on the flop of a raised pot. This gives you top pair with top kicker, and it’s a nice spot to be in. If you were to raise this hand up to three or four times the big blind and were greeted with two callers, just like that, you’d stand to win at least 12 or more big bets. As long as it’s well timed, this move can even be done with air (absolutely nothing) against the right opponents.
Raising can also intimidate your opponents when it is done at the right time. Raising the pot when there is already a bet thrown down is a sign of strength and it forces all the other players to have an extra special hand in order to stay in the game. As long as it’s well timed, this move can even be done with air (absolutely nothing) against the right opponents.
A player that calls too often will have to work hard to produce a winning game or playing style. The problem with calling is that it provides no information for what types of hands you may be up against. Calling players don’t know if they are up against the nuts, a weak draw, or nothing at all. A savvy player will value-bet you to death when they have you beat, and when they don’t, they’ll always look for a discounted rate to chase their straight or flush draw. The only advantage to being the type of player who calls often is that players will avoid bluffing you like an incurable disease.
Calling too often presents another problem. It forces the player to have the best hand every time they play down to a showdown, where the cards must be exposed. This is a very difficult thing to do more than 50 percent of the time and nearly impossible to do more than 60 percent of the time. Since poker is such a guessing game with incomplete information, nobody is that good at being right. It would be amazing if the technology was present to look back on every playing session just as if it were taped and edited for TV like the World Poker Tour, where all of the cards were exposed. If you watch the show, you’ll routinely see players win pots without having the best hand. They are winning these pots by raising them up, rarely by calling. Calling has its place but should always be used in moderation in favor of the more dangerous raising option.
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When I started playing online poker I found it very difficult to deal with the fact that all my opponents were anonymous. I usually hadn’t played against them before, and to me, they were just nicknames with chips in front of them. And how do you play against someone you don’t know?
My opponents’ anonymity was a big problem during games, because it meant I was rarely able to make decisions based on their playing styles. This was obviously a dilemma - winning without playing the opponent is hard, sometimes impossible.
Pen and Paper as a Stat Tool
To solve this problem, I used the most basic stat tool there is: a pen and a piece of paper. When a game started, I drew a table, wrote all the players’ names around it, and started making notes on how they played.
Mostly, I focused on their pre-flop decisions, which are often the hallmark of a player’s particular way of playing. How often do they call and raise? Do they flat-call raises or always re-raise when they enter a pot after a pre-flop raiser? Do they care about what position they’re in?
This gave me answers to two questions: (1) How many hands does my opponent play?; (2) How does my opponent handle these hands - aggressively or passively?
Keep a close eye on the others at your virtual table.
To me, this was an Archimedean discovery. Behind every nickname, there was a player of flesh and blood with individual strengths and weaknesses. For the first time, I was able to exploit players’ flaws and avoid the strong players.
Knowing how you should play against certain player types is one of the most important factors when playing winning poker. We’ll look at three of the most common poker-player types and examine how you should adjust your strategy when playing against them.
Weak and Strong Players
First of all, never make moves on an opponent who doesn’t understand what you’re doing. Never bluff the unbluffable. This might sound obvious, but there are many players who constantly, and unsuccessfully, deploy overly complex strategies against substandard poker players.
If you’re up against a weak player, you should play straightforward and avoid making subtle moves. Weak players often love to call, and why not let them do that?
Bet and raise with strong hands and fold when you think you’re behind. A fancy bluff on the river when “it’s obvious that you have the flush” will often backfire. Don’t think that you have to mix up your game to become unpredictable. Weak players simply don’t care how you play - they’re too busy playing their own hands, which is one reasonthey’re weak.
Against a strong player - someone who is able to understand more complex plays - you have to mix up your game. Sometimes you can do the obvious play, but you also have to tell false stories: bluff, semibluff, bet with a strong hand to make it look like you’re bluffing, slow-play, overbet etc.
If a player has the bluff in his own repertoire, he is more likely to think that you’re bluffing. But on the other hand, he might realize that you “must have a hand” when you bet, say, 60% of the pot coast to coast.
Against a strong player you must lie, but lie so it seems believable.
Calling Stations - Your Favorite Opponents
Different players act different ways, even online.
If there’s one particular type of player you should look for when selecting tables, it’s definitely the loose-passive: someone who plays many starting hands, draws when the odds are against him and prefers calling to betting and raising.
This player, however, sometimes manages to outplay more knowledgeable poker players just because the better players don’t adjust and use the correct strategy against him. The “good players” employ fancy moves and try to outplay the “fish,” which only results in the stronger players’ demise. They make moves the calling station doesn’t understand.
You must keep in mind that a calling station (almost) always speaks the truth. If he calls you, he has something - a draw or some sort of hand. But no matter what you do, he is very likely to call you. Consequently, you need a hand that can win in a showdown. If you don’t have it, get out.
On the other hand, if the calling station checks on the flop and the turn, you must bet no matter what you hold. But you should only bluff when it’s obvious that your opponent has given up the hand.
Sometimes you’re pretty sure of what your opponent holds, say top pair, weak kicker. You know that a better player would have to fold if you made a large bet or raise. Your instincts tell you to make a move. But don’t listen to your instincts. You must not overrate your opponent.
If you make a move, the weak player is going to think for quite a while, without knowing where he stands in the hand. But when there are a couple of seconds left, he will call. He’ll then write something like “Oh, I almost folded” in the chat; and you’ll think “You should have folded, you fish!”
Then you leave the table, knowing that you got outplayed by a bad poker player. Never a good feeling.
This is why it’s of paramount importance that you take steps to get a read on your online opponents. As I discovered to my benefit, a few minutes with pen and paper taking notes on their playing styles will prove invaluable.
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Pre-Flop Strategy in Texas HoldemBefore you start betting like a madman when you get two eights in the pocket, you need to carefully consider all factors involved in solid pre-flop strategy.
The factors to consider are the number of players, how aggressive/passive the players at the table are, your bankroll, your position, and how much risk you are willing to entail.
Number of players: With 10 people in the game, it’s much more likely that someone else has a strong hand in the pocket than in a short-handed game. Also, you’ll need to be more cautious in larger games, as the chances of someone’s pre-flop hand fitting the flop will be much better. More competition means stiffer competition.
How aggressive the players are: Assuming you’ve been playing with a few people for several hands, and you noticed some jackass is raising every hand pre-flop, you’ll want to play tighter. Let the guy win the blinds (big deal) and nail him to the wall when you have a solid hand in the pocket pre-flop.
Your bankroll: If you have $2 left, you’ll want to play extremely carefully and select one hand to bet on, hoping to get as many players involved as possible for a larger pot. You’ll want to be all-in before the flop is dealt. On the flip-side, if you have $1000 at a $1/$2 table, you can take the high-risk, high-payout bets.
Your position: People in late position have the ability to influence the size of the pot much more than those in early position. This is especially true pre-flop.
Your tolerance for risk: Depending on your playing style, you may want to play more or less aggressively pre-flop. Players who shoot for larger pots, but don’t mind a greater chance for losing a few hands will want to raise pre-flop, especially if they are in late position. Some players prefer to be as selective as possible pre-flop, grinding out a winning hand here or there. It really depends on your own style of play, and how you perceive the players around you.
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